Here’s a bit from the Wikipedia entry on the Phoney War:

At the Nuremberg Trials, Alfred Jodl said that “if we did not collapse already in the year 1939 that was due only to the fact that during the Polish campaign, the approximately 110 French and British divisions in the West were held completely inactive against the 23 German divisions.”

That’s right. We could have stopped the insanity right there if we had just acted.

Well, Israel is wondering if we aren’t at that same September 1939 moment where a little action could save millions (even billions) of lives and avert global catastrophe.

From the rhetoric that’s coming out of Jerusalem, it looks like Israel is getting ready to act on its own.

Or, is Israel trying to startle us out of that trance-like state that we’ve been in for the last few years?

It looks like we’re going to find out the answer to that question sometime during the next few months.

Israel Vice PM: Military strike can hit all of Iran’s nuclear facilities

Speaking at Herzliya Conference, Moshe Ya’alon calls the possibility of a nuclear Iran a ‘nightmare to the free world,’ says explosion at Iranian missile base targeted missile system that would have threatened the U.S.

Ha’aretz, 02.02.12, By Barak Ravid

All of Iran’s nuclear faculties are vulnerable to a military strike, Vice Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday, calling the potential of a nuclear Iran a “nightmare to the free world.”

At the closing day of the Herzliya Conference, Ya’alon referred to the many tools at the international community’s disposal that could serve to slow down or stop Iran’s advancement toward nuclear weapons capability: international pressure, economic sanctions, support of Iranian opposition, and military actions.

Speaking of the possibility of a military strike of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the vice PM said that “the West has the ability to strike, but as long as Iran isn’t convinced that there’s a determination to follow through with it, they’ll continue with their manipulations.”

“The Iranians believe that a determination isn’t still there, both in regards to military action and in regards to sanctions,” Ya’alon said, adding that “any facility protected by humans can be infiltrated by humans. It’s possible to strike all Iran’s facilities, and I say that out of my experience as IDF chief of staff.”

Read the rest of the article here.

——————————

Is Israel preparing to attack Iran?
By David Ignatius, February 2, The Washington Post

BRUSSELS – Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran over the next few months.

Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the United States could then stop them militarily.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to leave the fate of Israel dependent on American action, which would be triggered by intelligence that Iran is building a bomb, which it hasn’t done yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that would culminate in a live-fire phase in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring.

President Obama and Panetta are said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold. But the White House hasn’t yet decided precisely how the United States would respond if the Israelis do attack.

The Obama administration is conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States: whether Iran would target U.S. ships in the region or try to close the Strait of Hormuz; and what effect the conflict and a likely spike in oil prices would have on the fragile global economy.

The administration appears to favor staying out of the conflict unless Iran hits U.S. assets, which would trigger a strong U.S. response.

Read the rest of the article here.

———————-

Also:

Barak: If sanctions fail, Iran must be hit

Ya’alon: Iran was working on US-range missile

Anyway, I continue to be chilled, more and more by the parallels between the run-up to World War II and the situation that we experience, right now. Then, as now, we have a despotic ruler terrorizing his own citizens and threatening to exterminate the Jews. Then, as now, we have nations around the world attempting to placate aggression by throwing innocent countries to this wolf. Then, as now, we have a well-developed PR machine allied to the despotic regime attempting to neutralize any hint of the truth coming to light. Then, as now, we are in peril of our lives, and we’re not paying attention.

Barry Rubin writes an illuminating article titled “Letter from Prague: What The Betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938 Can Teach Us About The World and Israel Today“. In the article, Barry makes a chilling comparison between Czechoslovakia and Israel, a comparison that is chilling precisely because it fits all too well.

Here’s how the article starts out:

Letter from Prague: What The Betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938 Can Teach Us About The World and Israel Today

“We have no interest in oppressing other people….It is not so much the country of Czechoslovakia; it is rather its leader, Edward Benes. He has led a reign of terror….The Czech maintenance of a tremendous military arsenal can only be regarded as a focus of danger. We have displayed a truly unexampled patience, but I am no longer willing to remain inactive while this madman ill-treats millions of human beings.”  –Adolph Hitler, April 14th, 1939 (quote not fully authenticated, see note at end of my article)

 By Barry Rubin

                                                                                                                        Prague, Czech Republic

 Visiting the Czech Republic prompts thoughts of the 1938 Munich agreement. Analogies with Nazism and the 1930s are overused today, made even more tasteless and cliché-ridden by the fact that many of those using them know very little about the situation then and now.

 Beyond the simple narrative usually offered, a more detailed analysis shows a number of points that fit both situations better than people realize. That’s true despite the very important differences between the two cases.

 After all, this pattern will not be repeated today. Western countries genuinely don’t want to sell Israel out, the balance of forces favors Israel and the West, they aren’t really afraid of direct war, the “other side” is badly divided, and Israel is much stronger than Czechoslovakia and is unwilling to sacrifice itself. Still there are lessons to be learned.

 Let’s look at the 1938 crisis and its relationship with today from a different standpoint.

Read the rest of the article here.

Barry Rubin ends his article by making some important observations that our political leaders should pay attention to, and won’t. He also says that this isn’t the same situation as 1938, and I agree.

No, this is just 1935.

——————————————–

See my other post on Iran in OmegaShock.com:

Iranian Nuclear Weapons Get More Real

When I saw Glenn Beck embark on this campaign for Restoring Courage, I mentally cringed expecting a sugar-coated, Westernized view of Israel. I was ready for him to run about, blowing the shofar, wrapping himself in the flag of Israel and totally miss the people. I was expecting all that…

But, that’s not what he gave us.

He got it right, and I’m so relieved.

On Monday night, he did ‘Courage to Remember’, showing a film called ‘Kleiner Rudy’:

Rudy Wolff, an eighty-five-year-old Holocaust survivor, invites his granddaughter, director of the film, to join him in visiting his German birthplace. Once there, Wolff meets his childhood friends, giving us a first-hand glimpse into the after effects of the Holocaust, such as how do Germans deal with their past? How do Jews handle forgiveness and reconciliation? Is it in fact possible to accept, understand and forgive?

As I watched Rudy Wolff journey through a painful past and make a reconciliation with that past… it was profoundly moving. Choosing that film as the centerpiece of the event was masterful because that film brought us into the lives of the survivor. It allowed us to see and live the challenge that all Israelis have with the past.

Then, on Tuesday night, Glenn showed us the harsh realities of extreme good and extreme evil. He shined a spotlight on the subject and showed us the horror of the concentration camps and the gas chambers. He showed us the terrible suffering that the Jews went through.

But, he focused on us.

He asked a question that we must all ask ourselves. Why did so few stand?

And, if I were to be faced with the same question, would I have stood?

Would you?

As Glenn prepares for the finale of this event, I highly recommend that you sign up for GBTV and watch it. If this is the kind of quality programming that we can expect from GBTV in the future, the subscription price will be worth it to you, many times over.

But, before I get into my latest thisishowitreallygoesbad, let’s check to see how I did with the previous one. We are three and a half years into it and…

Here is where I was right:

• Russia strengthens ties with Iran

• The US economy descends into a shallow-dip recession. (Actually, I wasn’t pessimistic enough)

• A Democrat President is elected on a platform of jobs and ‘bringing the troops home’

• The US begins force reduction and starts repositioning forces towards Baghdad.

• Russia and Iran hold their first joint military exercises along with other CIS states – Turkmenistan, Khazakstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. Turkey attends as an observer. (Although Turkey didn’t attend.)

Here is where I was about half right:

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Turkey and Iran announce new cooperative agreements in trade. Turkey announces that it has withdrawn from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

-          Ahmadinejad did visit Turkey and announced new agreements, but Turkey is still a part of NATO

This is what I’ve gotten wrong (although it might still happen)

• Turkish government asks the EU delegation to leave and recalls its ambassadors from European capitals for ’consultation’. They don’t return.
• Turkey and Iran join a newly rejuvenated Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as associate members. Russian advisors start appearing among the staff of Iranian and Turkish generals

-          Not yet, and Iran might not ever join the CIS

• CIS Military exercises include units from Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Syria and Libya . Western observers begin expressing nervousness over the growing military power of CIS forces.

-          this might happen in summer 2012 (or 2013)

• The Russian president travels to Ankara for anticipated talks. Both Russia and Turkey announce that Turkey will be hosting the largest military maneuvers since World War II.

-          I think that this will happen in late 2012 or early 2013

For the rest, it’s a little early to say if it will happen as suggested, if at all.

Looking at how well I’ve done reminds me that I’m no prophet. However, I did predict the near-term events pretty well. My only failing was insufficient pessimism.

By the way, let me point out that the prediction that I made in 2007 was inspired by a report that the Iranians were experimenting with remote detonation of their Shahab missiles in low earth orbit. Trying to think about why they would do that lead me to think about the ramifications – and out popped my delightful doomsday scenario.

Doomsday Redux

Well, I’ve had a similar moment of revelation, and it bothers me to the point that I need to write it all out for your entertainment.

Here are the two bits of information that have me rattled:

• International financial institutions have gone sharply negative on the US economy.

• The leadership of Iran believes that Ahmadinejad is the Shoaib bin Saleh.

There’s other information out there that’s pretty serious too, but THESE are what should get you REALLY worried.

Our current economic situation is as bad as (if not worse than) it was before the Great Depression in the 1930s. Our economy is in trouble and we are doing nothing to deal with it. In fact, the US government is lying about what it IS doing, and that is pretty scary all by itself.

That’s bad. But, as bad as the Great Depression was, we survived, and I believe that we would survive another one – although, not nearly as well. However, I should have really said, “we will survive unless something else happens”. Unfortunately, I’ve stumbled over ‘something else’.

Have you heard of the Shoaib bin Saleh? That’s right the Shoaib bin Saleh. You know, the guy who brings in the Mahdi.

You haven’t?

Well, it’s time that you did.

The Shoaib bin Saleh is recorded in the Hadith as the guy who will prepare the world for the coming of the Mahdi, the Islamic Messiah. Here is a quote from Reza Khalili when he appeared on the Glenn Beck Show:

Ever since I started to dispel (INAUDIBLE) Islamic government and report on their activities, their terrorist expansion, their collaboration with all the terrorist groups around the world. And their intention to ultimately destroy Israel because that’s a key element. It’s a mandate of a century-old Hadith to take place so the Mahdi would return.

So I would state here that they are committed to this ideology and just because many in the West cannot understand it, it doesn’t mean that it’s real. And these are the same people who are pursuing the nuclear bomb. And I assure you that they intend to attack Israel, destroy Israel and they’re looking for the glorification of Allah worldwide.

And this documentary is the blueprint of their ideology. And they had no intention for it to — for this to go public. I was alerted by my contacts in the Revolutionary Guard several months ago that the project was approved by the Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei produced by the besieged militias, to be distributed throughout the Middle East, incite more uprising, overthrow U.S.-backed governments, calling for unification of Arabs, promising the destruction of Israel is imminent. And therefore, the imminent coming of Imam Mahdi.

Now this is all because we have an administration that is inept, weak and confused. And they can sense this and have become emboldened and excited by the events in the Middle East.

Khalili later went on to add:

You see, I have described it clearly in my book. These people — Ayatollah Khamenei — even Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, before the revolution, he stated he had three goals for Iran. One was to overthrow the Shah. The other was to establish an Islamic state. And third was to pass the flag of Islam to the last Messiah.

It has been their intention. They have acted upon it. And we have failed to understand this.

Khalili ends with this rather dismaying bombshell:

The Hadith says that 72 months prior to the reappearance of Imam Mahdi, this mythical figure Shoaib Bin Saleh takes power. And they says this mythical figure is Ahmadinejad.

So, Ahmadinejad has been in office for over five years. That gives us a year timeline.

They’re clearly telling us that within a year they’re going to create the circumstances needed for the Imam Mahdi to come. And we better understand this. They’ve got over 1,000 ballistic missiles, right now.

(Excerpted from a transcript of the Glenn Beck show, HERE.)

That’s right. When the Shoaib bin Saleh comes to power, a 72 month clock starts running, and the leadership of Iran think that Ahmadinejad is this Shoaib bin Saleh – and that HE will bring the Mahdi in. Here are a couple links that you need to see:

Iran’s End Times Documentary

Iranian Government Video: The Return of the Mahdi is Imminent

Frontpage Magazine says:

The documentary claims that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is the Seyed Khorasani talked about in the Hadith that leads a nation in the East (Iran) as “the preparer” for the Mahdi’s intervention. In July 2010, a senior Iranian cleric revealed that Khamenei had told close associates that he had privately met with the Mahdi and was told that he’d arrive before his time as Supreme Leader ends. Khamenei is 71 years old and widely understood to be in poor health, so the grand jihad that Khamenei believes he must command must come soon.

President Ahmadinejad is an End Times character named Shoeib-Ebne Saleh, the film states. He is appointed as the commander-in-chief by Seyed Khorasani (Ayatollah Khamenei).  The speaker in the film says that this individual will “move” 72 months prior to the arrival of the Mahdi and will lead the recapturing of Jerusalem on “the threshold of the Coming.” It is unclear if “move” means a physical action by Ahmadinejad or if it means his coming to power in 2005. If it is the latter, then the regime believes the Mahdi is to appear by the end of this year.

- from: Iran’s End Times Documentary

Do I believe in this prophecy? Of course not. But, I do believe three things connected to this prophecy:

• The leadership of Iran believe in it

• The leadership of Iran will do everything they can to make it happen.

• The leadership of Iran are bloody minded enough to do what it takes to make this prophecy happen.

Depending on how the leadership of Iran interpret all this, we are within months (if not weeks) of a major war in the Middle East unlike anything that we have ever seen. They have also indicated an interest in the destruction of the Saudi monarchy as a part of the deal.

When/if this war happens, oil will stop flowing from the Middle East. That means no oil to Europe and no oil to North America. Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

What will that do to the price of gasoline? Will gasoline even be available? But, would you believe that I’m not really concerned about gasoline?

I’m actually more concerned about food.

Studies estimate that processed food in the United States travels over 1,300 miles, and fresh produce travels over 1,500 miles, before being consumed.

(excerpted from www.attra.org)

How much will the cost of food go up if the price of gasoline approaches $50/gallon? $100/gallon? Can you imagine having to transport food over that distance with gasoline at that price? And what about fueling the harvesters that use gasoline? And, the parts suppliers that transport it? And… and… and…

Will food even be available? Will we have any money to buy it, even if it was available?

We are on the brink of a repeat of The Great Depression. That spells disaster for the US and the Western World. Add this Mahdi-inspired war in the Middle East, and we go beyond disaster and straight into holocaust. Millions – even hundreds of millions – will die.

Just as the Jews of Europe did in the 1920s and 1930s, the West has been ignoring their worst enemy, and now that worst enemy is preparing to do something.

The question is what do YOU do?

Before the Holocaust happened, Jewish organizations tried to convince the Jews to flee Europe, so I will do the same thing.

Flee.

If you live in North America or Europe, get out. Go somewhere where you can be self-sufficient and where you won’t have to worry about your neighbors. Go live in a foreign country where they know how to take care of themselves without petrol powered machinery. Live in a place where they grow food nearby and where there is plenty of fresh water. (Like Costa Rica or Thailand) But, if you don’t want to ‘get out’, at least try to connect with self-sufficient groups of people like the Amish or the Mormons.

However, I understand that all this sounds a bit too hysterical, so I’ll suggest a Plan B:

Stockpile freeze-dried/dehydrated food for yourself and your neighbors, friends and family.

I recently discovered that FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) has spent over a billion dollars doing the same thing, buying  freeze-dried food from Mountain House. And, they did it quickly and quietly, without considering how much this would distort the market for freeze dried food.

Is FEMA afraid that something is going to happen? Are they afraid to tell us? Or, could this be nothing but an unhappy coincidence? (But, a billion dollars? All at once? Really? Just a coincidence?)

Do we want to emulate the Jews that died in The Holocaust and sit on our hands while this one plays out?

I believe that the very least that you can do is put some food away, just in case the worst happens.

Here’s what I suggest

I’ve discovered that the best tasting freeze-dried food comes from Mountain House. No one does freeze-dried better than these guys. They are the gourmet of freeze-dried food. That’s why they are worth ordering and waiting for it (and taking the risk that you might not get it). I suspect that if this brouhaha comes to nothing, you will enjoy eating this stuff. It’s quick to prepare, and it tastes good.

I would seriously love to get my hands on it myself. Of course, I’m also desperate for something that’s not squid, tofu or pickled jellyfish (remember that I’m Taiwan?). But seriously, this stuff is good. Really. You won’t mind eating it if everything turns out nice.

Second best is Provident Pantry. I’ve seen good reviews, and they look like they are worth buying. Especially since FEMA has grabbed everything that Mountain House produces for the next three months.

Also, do not forget that you will need emergency supplies and equipment.

Nitro-pak is the top dealer for Mountain House, and they seem to be able to get product even while FEMA pushes its weight around. You have the best chance of getting Mountain House goods by going through Nitro-pak. I also like how they have put together the following all-inclusive package:

Ultimate Family Preparedness Pak

That ‘Pak’ has EVERYTHING. Get that, and you’re set. You WILL need the emergency stuff that comes along with it, and getting it all at once is a good idea. It looks like they’ve thought of everything, and that’s a very good thing. Again, the food portion of the pak will be delayed, but not the survival supplies.

However, you do NOT want to be waiting around for food when Ahmadina-nutjob does what he says that he wants to do. That means getting ANOTHER food pack that might be second best, but still very good: Provident Pantry.

The Beprepared Premium 2000

Be Prepared is the home of Provident Pantry, and I’ve seen some good reviews about them. They are also less expensive, AND they will deliver immediately. (FEMA has obviously turned up its nose at them.)

Let me stress that you should get BOTH of the paks that I have described above. This means that you will have two years of food (or one year for two people, six months for four, etc.), plus all the survival gear that you will need.

Now, that takes care of you, which leads us to…

What to do about others

You will want to make sure that you are taking care of neighbors, friends, family, etc. You do NOT want them to starve, but you also don’t want to bankrupt yourself. Think about buying some of these options:

PleasantHillGrain foodpak1

Thrive from CostCo.com

These appear to have reasonable quality, while being much less expensive. They are not as good as Mountain House or Provident Pantry, but they will keep the people that you care about alive and reasonably happy.

By the way, you do NOT want MREs (Meals Ready to Eat), unless you like severe constipation and BLAND food. (And, it’s heavier, less compact, and has a shorter shelf life)

And, let me not forget to offer an Honorable Mention:

The ReadyStore

They seem to be worth looking at. I include it as an extra.

Oh, and let me add an important point about taking care of your neighbors. If you don’t take care of THEM, THEY will take care of YOU. (As in, take you OUT!)

As I end this bit of (hopefully) hysterical writing, I can only tell you that I have never been so concerned about the near future as I am now. Please treat this situation seriously. I have already transferred all the money that we have in the US to Taiwan and will be holding it in accounts that are gold-backed or just straight New Taiwan Dollars.

Please do not wait. Act now.

The Sarkozy government wants the rest of Europe to SCALE BACK on its involvement with Iran?

I hope that you don’t mind my incredulity, but isn’t that a bit tepid?

I’ve been racking my brain to find a suitable metaphor, and I think that I’ve hit on one. Y’all feel free to help me out with a better one. 

What would you do if, say, a gang set up a gas station near your neighborhood with the goal of using the profits to create a drug lab? Near your neighborhood?

Would you believe them when they say that they’re only going to make drugs for their own consumption? AND, what if this gang has had a history of sending out hit teams to kill people in the neighborhood? What if this gang has openly said that they are going to come to  your neighborhood and kill everyone that isn’t at least an associate of their gang?

Would you continue to buy gasoline at their gas station?

Would you go to your neighbors and say, “let’s just SCALE BACK our buying of gasoline at their gas station?”

Now, we should be fair to the Sarkozy government. They undoubtedly would like Europe to do MORE than this, but they know that this is all that they could get away with. Could France be using a little Sarkazm? Getting a bit Sarkaztic?

(And, thanks go to Tedders who has been faithful in pointing out the French change of heart!)

I never thought that I would ever say this, but here it goes:

The problem isn’t the French.

Can you believe that I just said that? I’m looking at what I just typed, and I STILL can’t believe it. The world must really be turning upside down if you can actually get my hands to cooperate in typing out such a statement.

In fact, it’s such an incredible statement; let me try writing it again:

The problem isn’t the French.

Wow. There it is again.

However, for all of my surprise, it’s still true. It’s a European problem – a European problem with a close analog to the rise of Hitler.

Europe saw what was going on in Germany, and chose to do nothing. They saw Hitler rearm and did nothing. They saw Germany support Franco in Spain and did nothing. When the Nazis talked about wiping out the Jews, Europe nodded their heads and said, “Go right ahead!” 

Now that I think about it, I’m beginning to see some powerful parallels.

As Hitler and Nazi Germany were gaining in power, Jews in Israel formed an organization called the Office of Aliyah B. In Hebrew, it was Mossad Aliyah Bet. Their job was to go through the Jewish communities and warn of the danger of Nazism. They pleaded with their families and friends to flee while they could, and very few listened. When Hitler gained even more power and started imposing restrictions on emigration, Mossad Aliyah Bet turned to smuggling their fellow Jews out of Europe.

You know the rest of the story, except this: After the state of Israel was created, the agents of Mossad Aliyah Bet became the nucleus of the greatest intelligence agency ever created – The Mossad.

But, let’s get back to our story.

Just as the Jewish people did not recognize the threat until it was too late, so too has Europe and America not recognized the danger of Iran until it was too late.

It’s ironic. America and Europe have become a metaphor for the Jewish people. We’ve tolerated Islamic Fascism, and now it’s going to kill us.