I did a bit of checking and there IS a US Aircraft Carrier sitting off the coast of Israel and, by now, might actually be off the coast of Lebanon – but over the horizon.

But, it’s not an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group. It’s a Strike Group.

Smaller aircraft carrier.

Fewer ships.

Lots of Marines.

Still generates anxiety – but without the same level of dread. 

It would take a bit longer to destroy a country with a Strike Group, than with a Battle Group. It’s still pretty heavy stuff, but just not as exciting as a Battle Group.

AND, I should point out that my source did NOT say Battle Group. I added that.

(grumble)

I LOVE just saying the words ‘Battle Group’. There’s a lot of ‘Whoa Dude’ in a name like that. The words ‘Strike Group’…

   …well, they just don’t give you the same ‘shivery’ feeling.

But, having said that, you can keep the ‘shivery feeling’.

Trust me, you can do with out the ‘shivery’. 

True, he’s controversial, and he’s stuck his foot in a lot smelly topics and come away with a bad smell himself… But, his insight is incredible. So many of his predictions have come true that you begin to wonder at some latent psychic power. He’s not perfect, mind you. Just good. Very.

Why do I bring up Professor Emeritus Lewis now? Because he’s been speaking and writing on Iran, and echoing quite a few things that I’ve been saying here. More than that, he has been breaking new ground, even for me.

Some of this new broken ground comes from an article in The Jerusalem Post called The Iranians do not expect to be attacked by Tovah Lazaroff and David Horovitz. That article was the result of an intense interview of Dr. Lewis, an interview that I want to discuss in detail and excerpt over the next few posts.

As the article states,  

His English accent undimmed by recent decades spent living in America, Lewis, who was born in London into a middle-class Jewish family, sketched out a vision of extremist Islamic ambition at chilling odds with his placid, soft-spoken delivery.

I don’t mean to scare you… Or, maybe I do. There is a perverse element to my nature. (I think that it’s a writer thing.) 

No, really. The main thing for me is to make sure that you are able to understand that there ARE storm clouds on the horizon, and that they are coming YOUR way.

THIS. IS. NOT. A. DRILL. 

If you can internalize the seriousness of what is about to happen, then you will have some preparedness. And who knows? Maybe some of you will be able to provide some basis of change? I doubt it, but it’s worth a try.

See you tomorrow.

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Read the full article here:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467860507&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Sounds like a disease, or at least something that your Mom told you to stop doing on the sidewalk.

Well, it IS a disease, one of many social diseases afflicting the Arab soul.

It means, “the right of return” – for Palestinians.

In most Western countries, we let refugees become a part of our populations. We try to integrate them. The tired, poor, and huddled masses that wash up on our shores energize us, making our economies powerful. They bring new insights and a willingness to work hard. Their hopes and aspirations result in businesses and services. Their culture enlivens our towns and cities.

They are a blessing.

But, think about the Palestinian refugees living in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. They are forced to live in crowded camps, in lawlessness and squalor. They are not allowed to integrate. They are not allowed to become citizens of their host countries. They have no rights, and they are looked upon with disdain by other Arabs.

The result is bitterness and anger – a fertile ground for Islamic radicalism. They are the incubators for Jihad.

In the Arab world, they are a curse.

One day, someone in the Arab world with the power to do something will wake up and say ’this is a bad idea’.

Unfortunately, it’s already too late for a good one. 

The Palestinians do NOT understand democracy, except in a very superficial way.

I think that it was about 14 years ago, just after I had arrived in Israel, when there was an election in Lebanon. The Syrians were in control, and they selected the candidates – and the winners – beforehand.

Then they had the poll, where the carefully selected ‘winners’ won by a landslide. The newly elected politicians then went on to crow about how wonderful Lebanese democracy was – unashamedly referring to their corrupt victory as an example for others to follow.

There was not even a ripple of disagreement from other Arab countries – certainly not from the Palestinians.

And, they’re not being disingenuous. They really don’t understand how democracy works.

It is true that democracy is about the ‘will of the people’. But, you can only have a ‘will of the people’, if each person of ‘the people’ is worth hearing from.

In traditional Arab society, there is no such thing. It is an extremely hierarchical society, with each level answering to the next. And, once you get down to the level of the individual… well, there isn’t anything left.

Having said that, the situation DOES seem to be changing. The area IS being somewhat Westernized, but it’s a slow process. And, it is bumping up against those forces that think democracy is an abomination.

And, traditional Islam is one of those forces.

Oh, not the normal kind where you sit and think hard about why you did this, or why you feel like that. No, Israelis are searching the souls of their leaders. They want to know the whys and wherefores of the war in Lebanon. They want to know why the war wasn’t won more decisively. They want to know why certain units didn’t have enough supplies. They want to know why this group wasn’t talking enough to THAT group.

And on and on.

The bottom line is that mistakes were made, and Israelis want to know why.

They suspect that their politicians are at fault, but I know the REAL reason. I have spent a lot of time gathering deep intel, and my intelligence sources (my cats) tell me that the real reason is…

…democracy.

The real reason why Israel made mistakes in southern Lebanon is that Israel doesn’t like going to war. She would rather do something else, anything else. It’s messy. People get hurt. And, it’s expensive.

Israelis would rather send their kids to nice schools and visit their parents on the weekends. They’d rather see another brand of peanut butter in the grocery store. They want good medical care and roads without potholes.

In democracies, politicians know this. That’s why they spend the absolute minimum on the military. And, they know that you don’t win elections by going to war. You win them by making people feel better.

The bottom line is that Israel screwed up in southern Lebanon because she is a democracy.

That’s good, which makes it something to be proud of.