The Universe is a difficult and unforgiving place. Every cause has an effect. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. If you try to break this ‘law of causality’ you are going to get hurt. And, if you don’t teach causality to your children, THEY are going to get hurt.

The same principle applies to the Palestinian government(s). If they start down a road that leads to war, you must let them have a taste of what the result will be – that is, if you have any care for them at all. If you don’t care, then you can follow the example of Jordan.

On September 15th, 1970, in response to Palestinian attack, the Jordanians were forced to declare martial law. When the Palestinian leadership ignored this attempt to restore order, the Jordanian army went in the next day to restore order by force. The result was tens of thousands dead and a terrible increase in the suffering of the Palestinian people.

THAT was Black September.

Israel tries very hard to use gentler methods to convince the Palestinians to change their behaviour. Israel does not want to be forced to kill thousands of Palestinians and drive hundreds of thousands from their homes (a la Black September). That’s why Israel has implemented the use of blockades and highly targeted strikes.

(Except Israel, do you know ANYONE who warns the occupants of a target before an airstrike?)

If they care about the Palestinians, the world will let Israel continue its campaign to change the behaviour of the Palestinians. The alternative is a bloodier repeat of Black September.

Surely, they don’t want that, right?

(Or, maybe they do.)

I say that because I’m about to quote something from a book in Ketuvim, which is the ‘hk’ in the acronym Tanahk. It’s in the book of Shophtim (שֹּׁפְטִים - Judges). There’s this exchange of letters between Yiphtach (Jephthah) and the king of Ammon (present day Jordan).

In one of his letters to Yiphtach, the king of Ammon explains why he is going to war with Israel:

Judges 11:13 And the king of the children of Ammon answered unto the messengers of Jephthah, Because Israel took away my land, when they came up out of Egypt, from Arnon even unto Jabbok, and unto Jordan: now therefore restore those lands again peaceably.

Yiphtach responds by saying, that the king of Ammon must be smoking something because Israel never took ANYTHING from Ammon when they came out of Egypt. Here’s what Moshe said in the book D’varim (Deuteronomy), when he was giving his final speech to Israel before going off to die:

Deut 2:37 Only unto the land of the children of Ammon thou camest not, nor unto any place of the river Jabbok, nor unto the cities in the mountains, nor unto whatsoever the LORD our God forbad us.

Does any of this sound familiar to you?

It does?

But, just in case someone missed a bit of the obvious, let me point it out. Ammon had zero claim to anything to the west of the Jordan River. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Yet, that didn’t keep them from claiming that Israel had taken the land away from them.

Almost three thousand years ago, they were doing the same thing that they are doing today. They pointed the finger and said that Israel took their land.

Whatever you may say about the account of the taking of the land of Israel, by Israel, it is clear that people of Ammon had no claim whatsoever to anything that Israel had – but that didn’t keep them from demanding their rights to what they didn’t own.

A three thousand year old newspaper headline, and it’s déjà vu all over again.  

But, there is a three.

Most people do not know that the Jordanian royal family is the caretaker of the Mosque al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock. They finance the waqf (Islamic religious endowment) that pays for the renovations of the buildings and the salaries of the caretakers for the buildings on the Temple Mount.  

This might sound like a pretty upsetting arrangement to you. The idea that a foreign monarch could have so much influence over a place that is at the center of Jewish life… that the holiest site for both Judaism and Christianity is financed by a foreign power… that the capital of Israel would have a someone who once sought Israel’s destruction be allowed to manage the financial needs of the Har haBayit (Hebrew, Mount of the House)… I can imagine that this sounds both shocking and horrifying.

Let me horrify you some more by explaining why it is in Israel’s best interest to make sure that this arrangement continues.

Firstly, having the Hashemite royal family in control of the Islamic functions of the al-Haram al-Sharif (Arabic, The Noble Sanctuary) keeps things moderate and far less politicized than it could be. The Jordanians do NOT want instability in the West Bank or in Jerusalem. Instability in Palestinian areas tends to spill over into Jordan. 

Secondly, Israeli law rules everywhere on the Temple Mount, and in the rest of the Old City. From an Israeli perspective, whoever is paid to maintain Islamic buildings is meaningless, as long as no one causes any trouble.

However, a little bird told me that there is something far more important than all of that. Being the caretakers of the Al Aksa Mosque and Dome of the Rock is an important raison d’etre for the Jordanian royal family. I was told by a reliable source that if the Jordanian royal family were removed as caretakers of the Haram al-Sharif, they would fall from power in Jordan.

A part of me still struggles to believe it, but I am forced to admit that it does make a certain kind of backward sense. Arab society is heavy on symbolism. (Most centralized, repressive, non-democratic, patriarchal societies are.) So, when I was told that if the Hashemite monarchy loses control of the Temple Mount waqf… that they would be in a lot of trouble…

Well, I wasn’t going to discount it out of hand.

Why else would the late
King Hussein of Jordan have spent
$8.2 million of his own money
to plate the dome in gold?

Let me cut a long story short. If the Israeli government hands control of the Temple Mount over to local Palestinians, there could be serious and severe repercussions for the region. The Jordanian monarchy could lose one of its few claims to legitimacy, and it could even contribute to its fall from power. In the resulting chaos, Syria, Hamas, Hizbullah, or some other Jihadist organization could gain power. No one wants that – no one sane, that is.

If it is true that the Temple Mount is vital to the stability of the Jordanian monarchy, this means that Israel will need to do everything that it can to ensure that the Jordanian royal family stays in control of the upkeep of the Temple Mount. And, the only way to do THAT is for Israel to STAY in control of the Temple Mount itself. 

The alternative is unimaginable.

Day One was an unparalleled success, and the question was whether day two would be as unqualified a victory.

One of the most famous sayings attributed to military battle plans is this one:

No plan survives the first enemy contact*
       — Helmut von Moltke, the Elder (1800-1891)

The plan had already had one failure. The goal was to avoid combat with the Jordanians. That part had failed already. But, the great power of Israeli war fighting, and the Israelis themselves, was flexibility. Provision had already been made for the opening of the Jordanian front, and Israeli units were making steady progress.

Imagine the mindset of the commanders as they met with one success after another. When was the plan going to fail?

Commanders on the Israeli front were meeting every single objective on, or ahead of, schedule. But, it would be the Jordanian front that would bring the greatest concern on Day Two.

One of the cruelest battles of the war began at 2:30 a.m. at Ammunition Hill, near the Old City of Jerusalem. In attempt to rescue the units cut off on Mount Scopus, a company from a reserve battalion of paratroopers was sent in to take the Jordanian fortifications near the Jordanian police school.  A reinforced company of 150 Jordanian soldiers held Ammunition Hill and refused to surrender. The next three and half hours was the ugliest in trench warfare and the Jordanians fought to the last man.

Just as the battle for Ammunition Hill was winding down, combat in the north of the West Bank was heating up. In attempt to pry the 45th Brigade of the Israeli Army from Jenin, the 40th Brigade of the Jordan Legion began its counterattack at 6 a.m. The Israeli advance in the north would be stalled for the next eleven hours as both sides fought for control of the Dotan Valley. It wasn’t until 5 p.m. that the Israeli army would be able to restart its advance.

Meanwhile, the conquest of Jerusalem, Gaza, and the Sinai was moving along quickly. By the end of the day, both the Egyptian and Jordanian armies were beginning their first organized retreat.

As Day Two came to a close, the commanders of the Israeli army were finally coming to realize that they were going to make it. It would be several days later before the rest of Israel would see it for themselves.  

The best was yet to come.

____________________________________
*Translated from German. The original quote was:

Kein Plan überlebt die erste Feindberührung.

Most of the time, it is incorrectly translated as:

No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

It’s the same idea, but fussy amateur military historians like yours truly are horrified by such inaccuracies.

   — JL
 

The Arab states are very concerned about the Shia revolution. They see a militant, expansionist Shia movement which already seems to be spreading from Iran to Iraq, through Syria to Lebanon, all the way across to the Mediterranean and eastward to Afghanistan and Pakistan and so on.

One has to bear in mind that there are significant Shia minorities in Saudi Arabia and all around the Gulf, all the Gulf States. Yemen is in a sense a Shia state, though not of the same branch. From the Saudi point of view, the Shia revolution really constitutes a major menace. That is why they were so quietly supportive of Israel in the Lebanon war, and I think they would take that line again if there is a further clash. Or, should I say, when there is a further clash. 

One of the great tragedies of the Middle East is that the Arabs did not recognize the influx of Jews as an opportunity. By giving up a Little land and providing a safe haven against the murderous anti-semitism of Europe, the Arabs could have become an economic powerhouse.

Instead, they became a series of embattled, unstable, and financially destitute countries.

And now, there is another reason. Arab governments realize that they are in a lot of trouble. A lot. They have Shia minorities with sympathies with Iran and an Iran with hegemonic aspirations. They have turned to the US for help, but working with the US comes with a price tag – and some real cultural differences that are difficult to overcome.

On the other hand, Israel understands the Arabs and is there, on the ground, with them. The Arabs KNOW that Israel has a vested interest in stopping Iran. American interest has been shown to be somewhat more… fickle.

Saudi, the Kingdom of Jordan, and the Gulf States do not like Israel, but they are coming to realize that they cannot live without her.

You might think of it as an Arab second chance.

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You can see the rest of The Jerusalem Post article here: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467860507&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull