israeloutlook.com

As a follow on to what I posted yesterday, it appears that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is saying that the current leader of Syria really is going to be ousted. They even give coherent reasons why they think that this will be the case.

But, there’s better news buried towards the end of the article. Much better.

It seems that Iran is further away from a nuclear weapon than others seem to think. And, the IDF source gives good reasons why they think this way.

As a follow on to what I posted yesterday, it appears that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is saying that the current leader of Syria really is going to be ousted. They even give coherent reasons why they think that this will be the case.

But, there’s better news buried towards the end of the article. Much better.

It seems that Iran is further away from a nuclear weapon than others seem to think. And, the IDF source gives good reasons why they think this way.

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That’s according to Ehud Barak, Israel’s Minister of Defense. That’s a pretty credible source, so maybe we should start thinking more about what happens AFTER Assad goes down.

The problem is that no one really knows what will happen when the Assad regime bites the dust. Iran will certainly be hurt by this. Some even say that it will be big trouble for Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Turkey will certainly increase its influence in the region, since that country has been a vital supporter of the Syrian rebels.

Will it be good for Israel?

Very good question.

That’s according to Ehud Barak, Israel’s Minister of Defense. That’s a pretty credible source, so maybe we should start thinking more about what happens AFTER Assad goes down.

The problem is that no one really knows what will happen when the Assad regime bites the dust. Iran will certainly be hurt by this. Some even say that it will be big trouble for Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Turkey will certainly increase its influence in the region, since that country has been a vital supporter of the Syrian rebels.

Will it be good for Israel?

Very good question.

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Apparently, the US and Israel are talking about what would trigger a bombing campaign to take out Iran’s nuclear weapons, and the US is hoping to allay Israel’s fear that America will do nothing.

The problem is that Israel isn’t stupid, and they’ve seen America fail to act too, too many times. And, THAT isn’t going to make Israel feel comfortable.

The question that Israel will need to ask itself is whether the US understands the threat, and whether the US is prepared to do something about it. However, if I was advising the Israeli government, I’d tell them that the US does NOT understand the threat and that the US is NOT prepared to do something about that threat.

Apparently, the US and Israel are talking about what would trigger a bombing campaign to take out Iran’s nuclear weapons, and the US is hoping to allay Israel’s fear that America will do nothing.

The problem is that Israel isn’t stupid, and they’ve seen America fail to act too, too many times. And, THAT isn’t going to make Israel feel comfortable.

The question that Israel will need to ask itself is whether the US understands the threat, and whether the US is prepared to do something about it. However, if I was advising the Israeli government, I’d tell them that the US does NOT understand the threat and that the US is NOT prepared to do something about that threat.

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It isn’t completely clear how much of Iraq Iran will wind up controling, but what IS clear is that the Shiites have launched a political offensive against the Sunni minority on the same day that the US formally withdrew from Iraq.

Stratfor, probably the best open-source intelligence organization in the world, has been predicting something like this for a long time. So, it’s no surprise that it’s happening now. Nor is it any surprise that Iran has its fingerprints all over current moves by the Shiites to oust Sunnis from any and every position of power in Iraq.

It isn’t completely clear how much of Iraq Iran will wind up controling, but what IS clear is that the Shiites have launched a political offensive against the Sunni minority on the same day that the US formally withdrew from Iraq.

Stratfor, probably the best open-source intelligence organization in the world, has been predicting something like this for a long time. So, it’s no surprise that it’s happening now. Nor is it any surprise that Iran has its fingerprints all over current moves by the Shiites to oust Sunnis from any and every position of power in Iraq.

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Amazing.

Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense for the Obama administration, actually said what all of us have been jumping up and screaming about. Iran could have a nuclear weapon in a year or less.

The scary thing is that when it gets acknowledged at THIS LEVEL, the problem is massive.

One good bit of news from all this is the tacit green light given to the Israelis to attack Iran. The US will no longer control Iraqi air space, and the Iraqi military have no military assets that could deny Israeli overflight of Iraq. However, that will change by the end of 2012 when Iraq accepts delivery of aircraft and surface to air missiles that they have on order with US defense manufacturers.

Amazing.

Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense for the Obama administration, actually said what all of us have been jumping up and screaming about. Iran could have a nuclear weapon in a year or less.

The scary thing is that when it gets acknowledged at THIS LEVEL, the problem is massive.

One good bit of news from all this is the tacit green light given to the Israelis to attack Iran. The US will no longer control Iraqi air space, and the Iraqi military have no military assets that could deny Israeli overflight of Iraq. However, that will change by the end of 2012 when Iraq accepts delivery of aircraft and surface to air missiles that they have on order with US defense manufacturers.

Read Full Post »