It is a truism that diplomacy cannot work unless the object of your diplomacy has something to lose when efforts fail. And, it’s pretty clear that the current diplomatic moves of the Obama administration are just a reapplication of failed efforts of the past. Iran has already dealt with trade embargoes before. They didn’t work then, and they won’t work now.
But, that was before Israel was in the picture.
In fact, it’s pretty clear that without the viable military threat from Israel, negotiations with Iran would be doomed to failure. Iran clearly understands that the US has no interest in attacking Iran and is perfectly willing to call America’s bluff.
Israel is clearly a different matter. Israel doesn’t make threats lightly, and she tends to succeed when she carries out her threats. Calling Israel’s bluff is a dangerous game.
It’s also pretty clear that Israel really doesn’t want to attack Iran, otherwise she would never have let the world see her readiness (and preparations) to attack Iran. The show that aired in Israel, Sunday night on Channel 10, is completely unprecedented and is clearly a final effort to convince Iran to make a deal with the West over the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
And yes, Israel really does understand the cost of attacking Iran and the price that the rest of the world will probably pay in the aftermath. And yes, Israel also understands that she will be labelled as ‘the cause’ of all that results from this attack.
The world had their chance to handle Iran, and they’ve fumbled it. There is one last opportunity to make diplomacy work. And, if THAT fails, well…
Israel is ready to launch.
‘IAF expects losses, and knows it can’t destroy entire Iranian program’
A major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike.
The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.
No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.”
In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.
Ben-David said the Israel Air Force “does not have the capacity to destroy the entire Iranian program.” There will be no replication of the decisive strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 or on Syria in 2007, he said. “The result won’t be definitive.” But, a pilot quoted in the report said, the IAF will have to ensure that it emerges with the necessary result, with “a short and professional” assault.
Ben-David said that if negotiations break down, and Iran moves key parts of its nuclear program underground to its Qom facility, the IAF “is likely to get the order and to set out on the long journey to Iran.”
“Years of preparations are likely to come to realization,” he said, adding that “the moment of truth is near.”