New Moon Over Iran

Watch for the New Moon.

Within five days of the new moon, Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – five days before through to five days after – as they did when they took out the Syrian reactor. The first window opened on March 17, and it closes on March 27th. The next one opens on April 16th and closes on the 26th.

And then, there’s May, June, July…

But, the point is the New Moon.

Why? Because you do not want to make it easy for Israeli aircraft to be identified and shot down.

Of course, now that everyone is expecting Israel to attack during a new moon, they’ll attack at a completely different time… like during a full moon.

Anyway, when you see that a new moon is coming (the darkest time of the month), think about it as a perfect opportunity to take out nuclear facilities in Iran.

Or not.


1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack
by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2012 | Zero Hedge

Following last Friday’s majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian “action” when required, answering the “if“, the only open question remains “when.” As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail’s pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar.  Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any “surprise” attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after – see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

Read the rest of the article here.

Author: John Little

Who IS That Masked Man! John’s professional writing career started out twelve years ago in the financial services industry, writing marketing communications for an investment company based in Jerusalem. After a couple years writing about price-to-earnings ratios and the Hang Seng index, he went on to write for a Texas-based computer company. He’d almost burned out writing technical documents for OS/390, when he found himself abruptly working for a San Francisco-based software company. (He picked up a phone on Thursday and found himself on the Embarcadero on Tuesday.) Then the dot-com bubble burst, and he was downsized to a small Colorado-based company, followed by a tiny New York-based company. Then he said, “What the heck,” and went on to the ultimate in downsizing when he decided to open thewritegroup.com, which operates in the US and Israel. The great thing about working from Jerusalem? He’s completed a full day’s work by the time most of his clients stumble into the office. Of course, that means that you won’t be seeing his ugly mug very often, but let me ask you this: If you’d skipped the last ten meetings, how much would you have really missed? Thought so. Jerusalem also benefits from being a city in the most hi-tech country in the region, while also being close to Europe, Asia, and Africa. So, if you really need a meeting, John’s a quick flight from almost anywhere. And an MBA? Oh yeah, he has one of those too. He keeps it next to the laundry detergent. John operates from his US office in Indiana, and his Israel office in the southern part of Jerusalem. But, wherever in the world he is, you can always reach him via telephone. Or, email: john@thewritegroup.com When not at home, you will probably find him on assignment somewhere in Europe, trawling Indy bookstores, or lounging on some Greek island. Give him half a chance, and he’ll tell you all about it. Now, if John can get back to writing in the first person, he’d appreciate it.