As a follow on to what I posted yesterday, it appears that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is saying that the current leader of Syria really is going to be ousted. They even give coherent reasons why they think that this will be the case.
But, there’s better news buried towards the end of the article. Much better.
It seems that Iran is further away from a nuclear weapon than others seem to think. And, the IDF source gives good reasons why they think this way.
The problem with this kind of assessment is in trying to determine whether their intelligence is good, or not. I would tend to think that it is, but they’ve gotten it wrong in the past. Badly wrong.
If this is the official stance of the Israeli government, it looks like Israel will NOT attack Iran in 2012.
I really like the sound of that. I would much rather have OTHER factors drag the world down into chaos. I don’t want my favorite country blamed for something it didn’t cause.
Here’s the part of the Jerusalem Post article that I am referring to:
Turning to Iran, the IDF believes that Iran will make a decision in the coming years to manufacture a nuclear device.
Currently, Iran is assessed to be on the threshold, which means that it has mastered all of the technology required for a nuclear weapon as well as the fuel cycle process.
“All that is needed now is for the Iranians to make a decision to make the bomb and we predict with high probability that it will happen in the coming years,” the officer said.
The Iranians recently opened the Fordo facility built under a mountain near the city of Qom and are moving centrifuges there which they plan to use to enrich uranium to 20 percent levels, moving closer to the 90% levels required for a nuclear weapon. In addition, the facility can be used to store between 1 and 2 tons of enriched uranium.
“Once they go to the breakout stage [begin enrichment of military-grade uranium Y. K.], it will take between one year to a year-and-a-half to manufacture a nuclear device,” the officer said.
“It will take another couple of years for them to manufacture a number of bombs.”
Now, I’d be ecstatic if I could be convinced that there were measures being implemented that would actually deal with the nuclear threat. But, it looks like we will have to address that question when 2013 rolls around.
It pays to celebrate a measure of peace wherever and whenever you can get it.