Egyptian Time Bomb

If you get real quiet, and listen closely, you can hear it… tick, tick, tick, tick…

In July, I wrote the following in my article, An Egyptian Napoleon:

Revolutions are chancy things. You never quite know what you’re going to get when you start one.

We think of the American Revolution as having had only one possible outcome, but that is just not so. For instance, did you know that we came perilously close to a monarchy? That’s right, many of the founding fathers wanted George Washington to become a king. And, it was his for the taking, except for the fact that he abhorred the idea.

The French Revolution wasn’t so lucky. A brilliant young artillery officer from Corsica, Napoleon Bonaparte, rapidly rose in the ranks of the revolutionary army and then staged a coup d’etat in 1799, taking over the French government and calling himself ‘First Consul’. Five years later he was Emperor Napoleon I and on a rampage through Europe, conquering everything in sight. Thankfully he went on to get thrashed by the Russians (Moscow) and the British (Waterloo).

Now, how does Egypt come into this?

Well, Egypt is very much in the midst of its own revolution, and the outcome is undecided – very undecided. All it takes right now to tilt the balance in one direction or another is for a brilliant young army officer to rise and take power.

Well, things aren’t improving. David Goldman has been tracking events in Egypt and has written a series of articles that spell doom for that country:

Endgame for Egypt
September 13, 2011 – 3:21 pm – by David P. Goldman

Egypt “bankrupt in six months” — Mohamed ElBaradei
October 4, 2011 – 11:45 am – by David P. Goldman

Egypt descends into chaos
October 10, 2011 – 2:30 am – by David P. Goldman

Chaos or Corruption in Egypt?
October 17th, 2011 – 1:31 pm

Here’s a bit from that article, Egypt Descends Into Chaos, by David Goldman:

Egypt literally will run out of food. It imports half its caloric consumption, mainly wheat (although Egyptians eat less wheat than Iranians, Moroccans, Canadians, Turks and Russians). Egypt spends $5.5 billion a year on food subsidies. Its social solidarity minister wants to change the system (which subsidizes some people who can afford to pay more than the penny a loaf the government charges), but seems deeply confused. “‘We need to change consumer habits so that we are not consuming so much bread. In Mexico, for example, they rely more on potatoes. Why can’t we start shifting toward that?’said Saad Nassar, adviser to the agriculture minister.” Mr. Nassar seems unaware that Mexicans eat more corn than wheat or potatoes. This discussion would be comical if not for the fact that Egypt is about to run out of money to pay for any sort of food.

It does not appear to be a source of comfort that the Egyptian army is in charge. This is an institution whose Golden Rule is: “Don’t report bad news up the chain of command.” One recalls the June 1967 debacle, when President Nasser and his top generals had no idea how badly they had been beaten until days after the events because no-one in the field would tell them.

Read the rest of the article here.

Don’t you love that last part?

The ‘Golden Rule’ in Egypt is:

“Don’t report bad news up the chain of command.”

That means that no one (in Egypt) will see what’s coming until after it’s happened.

One of the reasons why Egypt had their revolution is due to the rocketing prices in food. And, the ‘revolution’ didn’t solve that problem. It made it worse. Egypt is running out of food, and they don’t have the money to buy more. That’s bad news.

Of course, it gets worse. Here’s part of an article from MEMRI:

Egyptian Economy Under Revolutionary Stress
By: Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli

“All modern revolutions have ended in a reinforcement of the power of the state.”
— Albert Camus, The Rebel (1951)

Introduction

Following eighteen days of demonstrations in Midan al-Tahrir (Liberation Square) in the center of Cairo, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down, on February 11, 2011. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces assumed the president’s powers and vowed to oversee a peaceful transition process leading to free and fair presidential elections, after five rounds of presidential referenda that had ensured the election of Mubarak, the incumbent, uncontested. As the Egyptian people grapple with their newfound freedom, the broader economic and social impact of the political turmoil in Egypt and, indeed, across the region, will fully unfold in the future.

Read the rest of the article here.

This is not going to end well. In fact, I suspect that we are staring at the fulfillment of this bit of prophecy from Isaiah 19:

2 “I will make Egyptian fight against Egyptian—
brother against brother,
neighbor against neighbor,
city against city,
province against province.
3 The Egyptians will lose heart,
and I will confuse their plans.
They will plead with their idols for wisdom
and call on spirits, mediums, and those who consult the spirits of the dead.
4 I will hand Egypt over
to a hard, cruel master.
A fierce king will rule them,”
says the Lord, the Lord of Heaven’s Armies.

However, the chapter does end THIS way:

 23 In that day Egypt and Assyria will be connected by a highway. The Egyptians and Assyrians will move freely between their lands, and they will both worship God. 24 And Israel will be their ally. The three will be together, and Israel will be a blessing to them. 25 For the Lord of Heaven’s Armies will say, “Blessed be Egypt, my people. Blessed be Assyria, the land I have made. Blessed be Israel, my special possession!”

That is VERY good news, and it’s never happened before, which means that there’s a ton of terrible events to live through before we get to verse 23.

Author: John Little

Who IS That Masked Man! John’s professional writing career started out twelve years ago in the financial services industry, writing marketing communications for an investment company based in Jerusalem. After a couple years writing about price-to-earnings ratios and the Hang Seng index, he went on to write for a Texas-based computer company. He’d almost burned out writing technical documents for OS/390, when he found himself abruptly working for a San Francisco-based software company. (He picked up a phone on Thursday and found himself on the Embarcadero on Tuesday.) Then the dot-com bubble burst, and he was downsized to a small Colorado-based company, followed by a tiny New York-based company. Then he said, “What the heck,” and went on to the ultimate in downsizing when he decided to open thewritegroup.com, which operates in the US and Israel. The great thing about working from Jerusalem? He’s completed a full day’s work by the time most of his clients stumble into the office. Of course, that means that you won’t be seeing his ugly mug very often, but let me ask you this: If you’d skipped the last ten meetings, how much would you have really missed? Thought so. Jerusalem also benefits from being a city in the most hi-tech country in the region, while also being close to Europe, Asia, and Africa. So, if you really need a meeting, John’s a quick flight from almost anywhere. And an MBA? Oh yeah, he has one of those too. He keeps it next to the laundry detergent. John operates from his US office in Indiana, and his Israel office in the southern part of Jerusalem. But, wherever in the world he is, you can always reach him via telephone. Or, email: john@thewritegroup.com When not at home, you will probably find him on assignment somewhere in Europe, trawling Indy bookstores, or lounging on some Greek island. Give him half a chance, and he’ll tell you all about it. Now, if John can get back to writing in the first person, he’d appreciate it.