I’ve been thinking about Ahmadinejad’s confident claims that he can take out the US and Israel – and achieve dominance for Islam.
How could he possibly do that without the help of thermonuclear bombs in the multi-megaton range? We also call them hydrogen bombs, or H-bombs, and they are beyond his capability to make. And, I can’t believe that Russia would let him have any.
However, I was given the idea of a decapitation strike by WorldNet Daily. They talked about using Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). This EMP strike would only require a few medium-yield nuclear warheads and only a few medium range missiles – and every unshielded electronic element/device/thingy in the Western world would be toast.
I originally thought that the whole idea was just shrill blather, until I did my research. It’s not shrill, and it’s not blather. It’s just really, really awful.
Let me play out a scenario that I’ve been thinking about. The first bit (up to today), except one, has already been documented as happening. (And the one bit, is a pretty reasonable assumption.)
Let’s get started.
June, 1989. Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani goes to Moscow and signs an agreement to procure advanced Soviet weapons.
1990. American successes in the Persian Gulf prompt the Soviets to create a closer, more intimate relationship with Iran.
Early winter, 1998. In Russia, the dramatic fall of the Soviet Union and the crash of the ruble has impoverished the guards of the Krasnoarmeyskoye nuclear weapons depot. Special Pasdaran operatives of the Quds Force of Iran bribe the guards to allow a truck in and out of the depot. (It’s only that LAST sentence that we aren’t sure about.)
Spring, 1999. Russian nuclear weapons scientists and specialists struggling to survive on meager salaries are offered generous compensation by Iran to do research and development.
January, 2004. A.Q. Khan, father of the Pakistani Atom Bomb, admits to transferring nuclear weapons material to Iran.
2004. The mayor of Tehran, the capital of Iran, secretly instructs the city council to construct a broad avenue for the coming of the Mahdi. The mayor’s name is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
February, 2005. Russia signs agreement with Iranians to supply fuel rods to Iranian nuclear reactors at Bushehr.
August, 2005. Engineer, Revolutionary Guards commander, and the founder of the Quds Force, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is elected as President of Iran – on a platform of poverty relief and the destruction of the US and Israel.
October, 2005. Ahmadinejad proclaims that Israel must be wiped off the map.
2006. Ahmadinejad is known to be secretly meeting with the Mahdi (Islamic Messiah). Islamic prophecies surface that the destruction of Israel will hasten the coming of the Mahdi. (In fact, are necessary.)
Late Summer, 2007. Troop surge by US forces succeeds in limiting effectiveness of insurgents but does not result in real political change.
—– this is where we start the ‘what-if’ —–
2008. Nervous about America’s growing influence in the Middle East and the EU’s closer ties to the Ukraine, Russia strengthens ties with Iran.
Summer, 2008. The US economy descends into a shallow-dip recession.
Fall, 2008. A Democrat President is elected on a platform of jobs and ‘bringing the troops home’.
Spring, 2009. The US begins force reduction and starts repositioning forces towards Baghdad.
Summer, 2009. Russia and Iran hold their first joint military exercises along with other CIS states – Turkmenistan, Khazakstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. Turkey attends as an observer.
Fall, 2009. Nervous about Turkey’s growing Islamism and slow progress on democratic reform, Germany and France finally succeed in convincing the EU to freeze accession talks. Upset over the insult to national pride, the Turkish government asks the EU delegation to leave and recalls its ambassadors from European capitals for ‘consultation’. They don’t return.
Winter, 2009. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Turkey and Iran announce new cooperative agreements in trade. Turkey announces that it has withdrawn from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Spring, 2010. Turkey and Iran join a newly rejuvenated Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as associate members. Russian advisors start appearing among the staff of Iranian and Turkish generals.
Summer, 2011. CIS Military exercises include units from Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Syria and Libya. Western observers begin expressing nervousness over the growing military power of CIS forces.
February, 2012. The Russian president travels to Ankara for anticipated talks. Both Russia and Turkey announce that Turkey will be hosting the largest military maneuvers since World War II.
March, 2012. Late at night, off the deserted coast of Louisiana, three rubber boats race away from a Panamanian freighter, pounding through five foot waves. Rain lashes at the muffled figures in the heaving boats. As they land, men jump out and wrestle several heavy packages to the sand. They send a sequence of flashes to the ship. They deflate their boats and bury them.
May, 2012. Israeli intelligence agencies report that they have detected the use of a new type of warhead for Iranian long range and intermediate range ballistic missile forces. Israeli dolphin class submarines depart Haifa enroute to the Persian Gulf.
Six Panamanian-flagged tramp freighters leave the port city of Chabahar.
June, 2012. Intelligence sources indicate that Iranian missile forces have deployed nuclear warheads with their Shahab 4 missile batteries. North American and European leaders increase diplomatic pressure on Iran. The US president proposes new sanctions and threatens the use of military force. From US armed forces command in Iraq, the Israeli requests IFF transponder codes and permission to over-fly Iraqi airspace. Their request is denied. The US State Department warns that Israeli aircraft will be shot down if they violate Iraqi airspace.
July, 2012. Concerned that Iranian forces are preparing to use nuclear weapons against Israel, the Israeli government finally okays a strike against Iranian nuclear forces.
At midnight, on July 12th, three Boeing 707 refueling aircraft disguised as commercial aircraft, of either the Egyptian or Jordanian airlines, take off at intervals of 90 minutes and enter Saudi airspace transmitting civilian transponder codes. At 2 a.m., 24 F-15I aircraft take off from Ovda airbase in the southern Negev and enter Saudi airspace flying 30 above the desert floor.
Within hours, mushroom clouds bloom over the mountains of Iran as the Israeli aircraft drop 48 precisely targeted low-yield nuclear bombs.
A large part of the Iranian arsenal and weapons production capability is destroyed – but only a large part.
A fire storm of diplomatic vilification descends upon Israel.
Iran invokes the common defense provisions of the CIS charter.
August 15, 2012. Russian, Iranian, Turkish, African and CIS army and air force units begin assembling in Southeastern Turkey near Incirlik and Iskenderum.
The US and EU, demand that all respective governments show restraint and stand down from their aggressive posture.
The UN Security council meets, and Russia demands that Israel disarm its nuclear weapons, pay reparations, and accept a massive multinational force to oversee the disarmament. The US, still reeling from Israel’s use of nuclear weapons abstains and the motion passes. Foreign nationals are advised to leave Israel.
Congress begins debating resolutions requiring the US President to intervene. No motion successfully passes.
September 19th, 2012. On Monday, at 11 a.m., a pair of service technicians wrestle an air conditioning unit onto a service elevator and punch the button for the very top floor in the Sears Tower. A library book mobile rolls down Pennsylvania Ave. in Washington D.C. A heavily loaded bakery van drives past Trafalgar Square on its way towards Downing Street in London. An early morning cleaning team wrestle their extra large trash can onto a freight elevator and punch for the 73rd floor of the US Bank Tower in Los Angeles.
Five medium yield nuclear explosions take out lower Manhattan, downtown Chicago, the center of Washington D.C., the governmental center of London, and the center of Los Angeles. The upper echelon of the political, military, and civilian leadership of the US and Britain cease to exist.
Throughout the US and Europe, small groups of men set off bombs at refineries, bridges, electrical switching stations, railroad depots, and port facilities. Buildings are destroyed, and fires begin to rage. Traffic and communications are snarled, and the fires begin to grow.
As the nuclear mushroom clouds rise ever higher over the LA, New York, Chicago, Washington, and London, five Panamanian freighters lie more than 20 miles off the coasts of Japan, California, New York, Texas, and Germany. One lies in the middle of the South China Sea. A long hatch in each freighter opens revealing the elegant nose of a Shahab 4 missile. Within two minutes the missile launches, racing into the sky on a column of fire. Within moments the missiles leave the atmosphere and there are six flashes of brilliant light over each freighter.
Each flash generates a massive pulse of electromagnetic energy over all of Europe, the US, Southeast Asia, and Japan. Computer systems, switching platforms, pumping stations, power plants, hospitals, and airplanes cease to function. In fact, every advanced electrical and electronic device ceases to work. The fires started by the terrorists, begin to rage out of control as water pressure falls to zero.
As the nuclear fallout begins to rain down upon shocked and horrified onlookers, the nations of Europe, North America, and Japan come to a grinding halt – and begin to die.
Food spoils in refrigeration units. Gas stations cannot pump fuel. Refineries cannot produce the fuel that the gas stations cannot distribute. Electronically managed cars cannot start (or even stop). The planes that survive cannot fly, and those already in the air, fall out of the air.
America, Europe, Japan and Southeast Asia are reduced in an instant to a 19th century existence.
Then, another missile lofts into the air from the area of southeast Turkey. It doesn’t quite leave the atmosphere and when it arrives over Israel, it’s nuclear warhead explodes creating yet another less massive Electromagnetic Pulse that takes out all unshielded electronics in Israel – which unfortunately included Arrow anti-missile batteries defending northern Israel and the bases in the south.
Several more missiles are launched from Southeast Turkey and mushroom clouds appear on the Golan, Dimona, bases in the Negev and Tel Aviv.
September 20, 2012. Using the passage of the UN Security Council resolution, the massive armed force begins advancing towards Israel. They expect to arrive at the border of Israel before September 26 – the holiest day in Judaism, Yom Kippur.
Within hours, Western Civilization has crumbled and Israel lies defenseless against one of the largest military formations ever put on the field.