Magda raised an interesting question. How can Israel oppose Russian interests?
The answer is that she doesn’t. Not directly.
It’s that ‘not directly’ part that’s the problem. You see, Russia wants to rebuild a power base. It can’t have its old power base, ‘cuz Europe has most of it. So, it needs to look elsewhere for client states.
Unfortunately, the only client states that are free at the moment are in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
The African states are a bit far away, and the Chinese are nosing around in the area. (Having said that, Russia would be more than willing to consider any ‘good deals’ that come along. Zimbabwe is cheap at the moment.)
They already have most of Central Asia, and would be willing to add more, if the price was right. Unfortunately, Afghanistan is always a mess, and Pakistan always teeters on the brink of being a mess.
That pretty much leaves the Middle East. But… they’ve had some mixed results in the past with the Arabs, so they will probably want a ‘go slow’ approach here. Also, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi, and the Gulf States have fled into the arms of the US. That will make them want to go even slower – for now.
However, there’s Iran and Turkey. Iran hates the US and Israel and is desperate for technological aid, and that makes them a perfect ally. Unfortunately, Iran comes with this messy messianic prophecy that tells them to destroy Israel. But, if you are Russia and want an ally to your south; well, sometimes you hafta support a bit genocide to get there.
Turkey is also interesting. They are slowly sliding into Islamism and that is scaring the EU. Since a scared EU willÂ probably reject Turkey (for inclusion into the EU), Russia is undoubtedly preparing to offer sympathy and ‘coo-ing noises’ when Turkey is finally rebuffed.
So, while Israel does not pose any threat to Russian interests, her destruction is aÂ vital bargaining chip.
Of course, there’s more.
I hate to say this, but the US looks like it isÂ going to loseÂ the battle forÂ democracy in Iraq. I could go into an in-depthÂ strategic analysis of why; but for now, it doesn’t look good.Â
When/if the US leaves Iraq, there will be a power vacuum that Iran will rush to fill. And, if there is a Democrat in the White House… well, Democrats have a history of drawing down military assets abroad. This means that the US will have a diminished presence in the Persian Gulf.
It also means that the US will be unable to oppose Russian involvement in the region.
However, there is this Little country called Israel that has been a thorn in the flesh for far too long, and they have had a tradition of opposing Russia. However, there’s nothing like a bit of genocideÂ when dealing with a problem like that.