Too Little To Lose (Bernard Lewis Part V)

I love the arrogance of Ahmadinenoodle, as my friend Marallyn from Shalom from Jerusalem calls him. He demands that the world be even handed with him. He is willing to stop enriching Uranium, as long as the rest of the world does as well.

Isn’t that fair?

Of course, it’s fair. But then again, we wouldn’t care if they had nuclear weapons if they were a country like, say, Belgium or The U.K. When was the last time that Belgium threatened to wipe out the Netherlands?

But, let’s get back to Dr. Lewis, because he makes an important point. When asked about whether Iran expects an attack, Dr. Lewis said:

My guess is that they do not expect to be attacked. Remember, they have no experience of the functioning of a free society. The sort of self-criticism and mutual criticism that we see as normal is beyond their understanding and totally outside their experience. What we see as free debate, they see as weakness and division and fear.

Therefore I think they have a very low estimate of the forces that oppose them, whether in the US or Israel or elsewhere. They expect to have it their way, whatever way they choose.

Already there are plans drawn up for a military strike on Iran, by US forces – and that strike will target more than nuclear capabilities. It will target military infrastructure such as bases and Naval docking facilities.

The question in peoples’ minds should not be about ‘whether’ and more about how far the US is willing to go in their attack on Iran. If they go too far they will undoubtedly antagonize moderate Iranians – to the point where they support ‘martial law’. However, if they do not attack enough, they run the risk of not destroying enough of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to do any good.

America is caught in a difficult position – damned if she does, and damned if she doesn’t. They will obviously wish to choose the lesser damnation. And, that ‘lesser damnation’ is undoubtedly the military option, but there is a question in my mind as to whether they will take it – and whether it will be enough.

My understanding is that the US will attack Iran and take out much of Iran’s nuclear program, but not all of it.

Unfortunately, the average Iranian is very patriotic, and the US attack on them will give the mullahs the platform that they desperately need. They have been steadily losing their war against modernity in Iran, and this will be their chance to ‘even the odds’. In fact, it’s the kind of chance that makes you wonder if they were looking for this from the very beginning.

The thing is, the mullahs can’t lose. They will defeat the ‘modernizers’ and eliminate this un-Islamic idea called ‘democracy’. They will, at the same time, ensure their power base by whipping up the population in a frenzy of anti-Americanism and patriotic fervor – in the same way that America was whipped up after the attack on the World Trade Center.

I suspect that this will result in an attack on Israel. She has always been considered the ‘Little Satan’ by Iran, and has been periodically used to shore up Iranian power. There’s nothing like a good, old-fashioned ‘death-to-Israel’ revival meeting to get the juices flowing.

It might not be this year, or the next, or even the next one after that. But, I believe that Israel will prove to be too irresistible a target for the mullahs. They would have too Little to lose, and too much to gain to do anything else.