‘The Iranians do not expect to be attacked’ – Part II
One of the things that I don’t like about this blog is that it is unremittingly negative. There really are very few positive posts. Yes, I’m positive about Israel, and I’m even (irrationally)Â positive about Israel’s prospects. Unfortunately, I am VERY negative about the chancesÂ for peace – with some exceptions.
Here is an example of an exceptionÂ – even a ray of light piercing my utter gloominess:Â
Nonetheless, Lewis, … , was not unremittingly bleak in outlook. He argued that Iran’s goals could yet be thwarted, by encouraging the Iranian people to turn against their regime. “There is a level of discontent at home, which could be exploited,” he said strikingly. “I do not think it would be too difficult to bring it to the point when the regime could be overthrown.”
An Iranian-wrought holocaust was not impossible, he acknowledged. But more likely, he said, was that “sooner or later,” we and our leaders would “awake from our slumbers.”
How will the Iranians be stopped? Do you think they are going to be stopped?
I do not know what Washington intends to do, or what Israel intends to do. My own preference would be to deal with the Iranian regime by means of the Iranian people.
All the evidence is that the regime is extremely unpopular with their own people. I am told that the Israeli daily [radio] program in Persian is widely listened to all over Iran with rapt attention and it is the only one that they believe.
Iranians were furious over the Lebanese war, feeling that they had been dragged into it and their resources were being squandered on promoting this dubious cause when things are deteriorating from bad to worse at home.
I think there is a level of discontent at home, which could be exploited. I do not think it would be too difficult to bring it to the point when the regime could be overthrown.
When you really get down to it, peaceÂ will happen when the average Arab/Iranian/Palestinian/etc. decides that they’ve had enough foolishness from their governments.Â The average person in theÂ Middle East wants what you and I want: A comfortable life, a loving family, a future for the kids, and a chance to spoil some grandchildren. Yes, they want honor and justice and Islam for all, but those ideas are poor cousins to motivated self-interest.
That is the glimmer of hope for us all. Unfortunately, “The Arab Street” (or, in this case the Iranian Street) needs a charismatic figure to unite them against their governments, and I don’t know of any that have survived. They’ve all be assassinated.
There’s no one to capture the imagination and give hope for aÂ better life. Without that, Dr. Lewis’Â ‘ray of hope’ will do little more than give us a false sense of security. True, some obscure nobody could step forward and play such a ‘messianic’ role, but thereÂ certainly isn’t anyone that we can point to now.
So, is there a ray of hope? Yes, there is.Â But, that hope is in a race against Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad is winning.Â
But, you hafta love the fact that Iranians love Israel Radio. I’m kinda partial to it myself.
This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467860507&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull