The Iranians Do Not Expect to be Attacked – Part 1: Because They Just Couldn’t Be Bothered

In my series on Bernard Lewis’ interview with The Jerusalem Post, I want to start with two quotes from the article:

For President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran, he noted dryly, the notion of mutual assured destruction, of certain devastation so immense as to have kept the United States and the Soviet Union from firing their missiles at each other through the Cold War, was “not a deterrent,” but rather “an inducement.” Given the apocalyptic messianism of Ahmadinejad and his supporters, “if they kill large numbers of their own people, they are doing them a favor. They are giving them a quick free pass to heaven and all its delights, the divine brothel in the skies.”

Dropping down a paragraph…

Nonetheless, Lewis … was not unremittingly bleak in outlook. He argued that Iran’s goals could yet be thwarted, by encouraging the Iranian people to turn against their regime. “There is a level of discontent at home, which could be exploited,” he said strikingly. “I do not think it would be too difficult to bring it to the point when the regime could be overthrown.”

Couple those two thoughts together and you see disaster looming. You have a regime that is willing to sacrifice their own country – indeed, thinks it’s a good idea. And, at the same time you see a regime that feels threatened by popular discontent.

Remember what I have said before, and what many have said before me. War is routinely used as a way to strengthen power and distract public opinion from problems at home. And there are two HUGE problems in Iran. There is rampant unemployment, and there is massive discontent over the growing number of religious restrictions on secular life.  

The theocratic state in Iran is starting to feel the cracks at the foundations of their power.

Now, there are many, many ways to try shore up the power of your government. The question is, how do you know which one Ahmadinejad is using?

Take a look at a recent article in The Jerusalem Post by Dr. Petra Marquardt-Bigman, entitled ‘The Warped Mirror Politically (in)correct about Iran‘. She is an expert on Nazi Germany and makes the following point:

While comparisons between theocratic Iran and Nazi Germany may be politically incorrect, they are not that easily refuted by pointing out that Ahmadinejad is widely despised and ridiculed by Iranians and that there is little propensity for anti-Semitism in Iran. If you think that settles the issue, how do you like this one “Hitler visits a lunatic asylum. The patients give the Hitler salute. As Hitler passes down the line, he comes across a man who isn’t saluting. ‘Why aren’t you saluting like the others’ Hitler barks. ‘Mein Führer, I’m the nurse,’ comes the answer. ‘I’m not crazy!’” There are more jokes like that to be found in a recently published German book on humor in Nazi Germany — and these jokes were quite popular, even though telling them could cost your life.

And on the second point, the lack of anti-Semitic sentiment in Iran, consider this statement “even though it may seem paradoxical, the German people are still the least anti-Semitic [in Europe]” — that’s what you could read in “Behemoth The Structure and Practice of National Socialism,” a book that, soon after its publication in early 1942, came to be regarded by many as the “definitive” analysis of Nazi Germany. The author was Franz Neumann, a widely respected German-Jewish intellectual who had escaped to the US, where he worked for some time as a leading political intelligence analyst in the Central Europe Section of the wartime US intelligence agency, the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). 

Ahmadinejad is unpopular, just like Hitler was, and he is using Anti-Semitism as a tool, just like Hitler did. 

When a leader like Ahmadinejad uses tactics employed by Hitler in conditions similar to Hitler’s… (They even look a bit alike). What can you expect from that leader?

Hitler-like actions.

Furthermore, those who would oppose Hit… I mean, Ahmadinejad… well, they are being effectively neutralized. Here’s that paragraph that sits between the two that I quoted at the beginning of this post: 

He dismissed Europe in a few sentences, a continent doomed to Islamist domination by dint of its own “self-abasement… in the name of political correctness and multiculturalism.” What did this mean for Europe’s Jews? The future, he said without hesitation, was dim.

Europe is being (has already been) neutralized. Ahmadinejad can bank of the belief that Europe will do nothing to stop his drive for nuclear weapons – and his eventual desire to destroy Israel.

The only other power that has the capability and the willingness to do anything is the US. Unfortunately, the US has had its nose bloodied in Iraq and has no stomach for more fighting.

Those of you who know a little history can see parallels between pre-WWII Europe and America. While Germany armed itself and engaged in military adventurism, America and Europe sat on their hands until it was too late.

War was too recent a memory, and they just couldn’t be bothered. 

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This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467860507&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

4 thoughts on “The Iranians Do Not Expect to be Attacked – Part 1: Because They Just Couldn’t Be Bothered

  1. oy…valhallah by the sons of ishmael is the brothel in the sky…boggles no? by the rest of us it’s angels and fluffly clouds and maybe a dinner invitation with the boss…great post once again

  2. Your point about the US being the only other power with the capability to do anything is especially chilling in light of Ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks today.

    “The war of words between the US and Iran today escalated as Iran’s supreme leader warned that Tehran would target American interests if attacked.

    “”The enemies know any aggression will give way to a wide reaction from Iranian people toward them and their interests in all parts of the world,” Iranian state television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying.”

    It sounds like he’s trying to spike US guns that haven’t even been fired.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2008811,00.html

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