A New Triad: Turkey-Iran-Syria

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Turkey.

I’ve even spent a lot of time IN Turkey.

There are problems in Turkey.

It is becoming less and less likely that Turkey will join the EU. The EU has demanded that Turkey recognize the Republic of Cyprus. The EU has demanded that Turkey own up to the massacre of 1.5 million Armenians. The EU has demanded that they stop press censorship.

Each and every one of those demands is absolutely reasonable, and should be ANYONE’s minimum requirement for entry into a body like the EU.

The problem is that Turkey will NEVER agree to the three points described above – especially the issue of the Armenian genocide. To Turkey, it never happened.

What’s the problem with this?

Well, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Iran. I’ve never been to Iran, but I can tell you that there are problems with Iran.

Iran’s economy is in a shambles, and it is set to become even MORE of a shambles when economic sanctions hit over the nuclear issue. Furthermore, sectarian unrest bubbles under the surface, and their society is becoming polarized between the religious and secular.

Furthermore, Iran seeks power, influence and control in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Tiny Israel is the only country left that is a threat to that hegemonic aspiration.

What I fear will happen is that Iran, Turkey and Syria (who has her OWN troubles) may find common  cause with each other – providing the perfect invasion route to Israel.

Remember that governments routinely use war to distract their people from their problems.

2 thoughts on “A New Triad: Turkey-Iran-Syria

  1. I disagree. But then, I’m only Turkish.

    Come again to Turkey. Let me take you out to dinner and try and convince you of the error of your ways. And if I can’t – well I will have tried.

    Pax.

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